Statistical summary: Air transportation occurrences in 2018

This document is a summary of selected 2018 air transportation safety data.

The Transportation Safety Board of Canada (TSB) gathers and uses this data during the course of its investigations to analyze safety deficiencies and identify risks in the Canadian transportation system.

It should be noted that certain characteristics of the data constrain statistical analysis and identification of emerging trends. These include the small totals of accidents and incidents, the large variability in the data from year to year, and changes to regulations and definitions. The reader is cautioned to keep these limitations in mind when viewing this summary to avoid drawing conclusions that cannot be supported by statistical analysis.

The 2018 data were collected according to the reporting requirements described in the Transportation Safety Board Regulations in force during that calendar year.

The statistics presented here reflect the TSB ASIS database at 18 February 2019. Since the occurrence data are constantly being updated in the live database, the statistics may change slightly over time.

Also, as many occurrences are not formally investigated, information recorded on some occurrences may not have been verified.

Overview of accidents and fatalities

Accident counts

Air transportation safety occurrences are reportable to the TSB if they occur in Canada or if they involve Canadian-registered aircraft and meet the criteria laid out in the Transportation Safety Board of Canada Regulations.^{Footnote 1} In 2018, a total of 201 air transportation accidents were reported to the TSB (Table 1 and Figure 1). This number is lower than the previous year's total of 240 accidents, and 25% less than the average of 267 reported in the 10 years from 2008 to 2017. Most (180) of the accidents in 2018 took place in Canada and involved Canadian-registered aircraft. Eleven accidents in Canada involved foreign-registered aircraft, and 11 more accidents involving Canadian-registered aircraft took place outside Canada.

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Canadian-registered aircraft, excluding ultralights (Table 2), were involved in 173 accidents reported in 2018. This is below the 2017 count of 208 accidents, and 25% below the average of 230 accidents for the prior 10 years. If 18 accidents involving ultralights are included in the count, there were 191 accidents involving Canadian-registered aircraft in 2018.

Aircraft type

Fixed-wing, powered aeroplanes (other than ultralights) were involved in 153 accidents in 2018, and 143 of those involved Canadian-registered aeroplanes (75% of 191 accidents). Canadian-registered helicopters were involved in 26 accidents (14%), Canadian-registered ultralights were involved in 18 accidents (9%), and other types of aircraft in 4 accidents (2%). From 2008 to 2017, the proportion of accidents involving each of these 4 types of aircraft has remained fairly constant; aeroplanes have been involved in roughly 75% of reportable accidents each year, helicopters in about 12% of accidents, ultralights in about 10%, and other aircraft in less than 5% of accidents each year.

Operator type

Commercial operators were involved in 66 accidents during 2018, which is fewer than the 97 accidents involving this operator type in 2017, and 30% fewer than the average of 94 accidents per year over the previous 10 years. Commercially-operated Canadian-registered aeroplanes were involved in 46 accidents in 2018, and 8 of those involved operations under Canadian Aviation Regulations (CAR) subpart 705, which certificates the operation of airliners. One of the 8 airliner accidents in 2018 was formally investigated by the TSB. Severe turbulence encounters resulted in 2 accident reports in 2018, while 2 other accidents involved injuries to cabin crew, 2 involved low-speed collisions on the ground, 1 involved engine power loss, and 1 involved a hard landing. This is fewer than the 9 accidents involving Canadian-registered airliners in 2017, but above the average of 5.4 per year recorded from 2008 to 2017.

Also in 2018, air taxi (CAR 703) accidents numbered 23, with 18 involving aeroplanes and 5 involving helicopters. These 23 air taxi accidents are fewer than the previous year's count of 28, and match 2015 for the fewest air taxi accidents since the inception of the TSB in 1990.

There were 13 accidents involving flight training units (CAR 406) in 2018, down from a peak of 32 in 2017, and slightly more than half (57%) the average number per year (23) from 2008 to 2017.

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Overall, 134 accidents involved private operations, compared to 142 in the preceding year. This is 19% below the average of 165 accidents per year observed during the period 2008 to 2017. Of the 134 total accidents in the private operations category, 96 involved Canadian-registered aeroplanes, and 6 of these were operating under CAR 604 with a private operator registration document (PORD).

Recreational operators are responsible for a significant amount of flying activity in Canada and abroad, and are involved in a large number of accidents each year. In 2018, 122 accidents involved recreational operators. This figure is 9% below the recreational operator accident count from the previous year, and 24% below the average (160) for the period from 2008 to 2017.

In addition to commercial and private operations, state-operated aircraft accounted for 2 accidents in 2018. Both involved aircraft operated by provincial governments: one during fire-fighting operations and the other in a training accident.

Province or territory

Ontario was the province with the largest number of reported accidents (53) in 2018, as was the case in 2017 with 62 (Table 7). Ontario has also averaged more accidents per year (67) from 2008 to 2017 than any other province or territory. While Quebec has historically had the second-largest accident count—averaging 58 per year from 2008 to 2017—in 2018, British Columbia (36) and Alberta (32) were the site of more accidents than Quebec (31). In addition there was 1 accident in North Atlantic airspace under Canadian control, and 11 accidents outside Canada reportable under TSB regulations.

The number of accidents involving Canadian-registered aircraft by province or territory is shown in Figure 3. There were 44 accidents involving Canadian-registered aircraft reported in Ontario, which is 21% below the average number (56) for the years 2008 to 2017. Quebec had the largest drop in accidents reported (28) relative to its 10-year average (49) than the other provinces or territories.

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Fatal accidents, fatalities, and serious injuries

The TSB recorded 38 fatalities in 23 fatal air transportation accidents in 2018. This is slightly more than the 34 fatalities in 22 fatal accidents in 2017, but is considerably lower than the corresponding averages of 55 fatalities in 32 fatal accidents over the 10 years from 2008 to 2017. Of 23 fatal accidents in 2018, 17 involved fixed-wing, powered aeroplanes, 4 involved helicopters, and 2 involved ultralight aircraft. All of these aircraft were registered in Canada. Four fatal accidents accounting for 10 fatalities occurred outside Canada (all in the United States).

Excluding ultralights, there were 21 fatal accidents involving Canadian-registered aircraft in 2018, unchanged from the preceding year and 19% below the average for the prior 10-year period (Figure 4). However, the number of fatalities in those accidents climbed to 36, which is more than the 33 reported in 2017 but less than the average of 48 in the years from 2008 to 2017.

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Nine of 38 fatalities involved commercial operations—5 under air taxi regulations (CAR 703) and 4 under aerial work (CAR 702). There were no fatalities involving airliner operations (CAR 705), commuter operations (CAR 704), or flight training units (CAR 406) in 2018. The remaining 29 fatalities in 2018 were linked to private operations, and all of them involved recreational operators, with 1 also involving an operator holding a PORD (CAR 604).

There were no fatal accidents in Canada involving foreign-registered aircraft in 2018.

Fixed-wing, powered aeroplanes were involved in the largest number of fatalities (30) while 6 persons died in helicopter accidents and 2 fatalities involved ultralight aircraft. Of the 38 total fatalities, 20 were crew members and 18 were aircraft passengers. There were no fatalities to persons on the ground in 2018.

Overall, 28 persons incurred serious injuries in aircraft accidents in 2018. This is down slightly from 2017 when 33 persons received serious injuries, and it is 22% below the average of 36 persons with serious injuries for the years 2008 to 2017. Seventeen persons received serious injuries in accidents involving commercial operations: 4 in airliners (CAR 705), 9 in air taxi operations (CAR 703), 2 related to aerial work (CAR 702), 1 with a foreign air operator (CAR 701), and 1 with a flight training unit (CAR 406). Also in 2018, 11 persons incurred serious injuries in private operations, including 7 in recreational operations and 1 operator with a PORD (CAR 604).

Accident rates

Canadian-registered aircraft accident rate per 100 000 hours flown

An accident rate of 3.5 per 100 000 hours flown was calculated based on the 169 accidents in Canada and abroad in 2018 involving Canadian-registered aeroplanes and helicopters (excluding ultralights and other similar aircraft types), and the estimated 4 796 000 hours flown by Canadian-registered aircraft (Table 3a).^{Footnote 2} This rate is below the 2017 rate of 4.2 accidents per 100 000 hours flown, and the average rate of 5.2 over the previous 10 years.

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The accident rate for Canadian-registered aircraft has fallen from 5.6 accidents per 100 000 hours flown in 2008 to 3.5 in 2018, a reduction of 37%. Kendall's tau-b (τb) correlation coefficient is a nonparametric measure of the strength and direction of association that exists between 2 variables. Kendall's τb was calculated on the 11-year series of accident rate values by year from 2008 to 2018. There was a strong, negative correlation that indicates a downward trend in occurrence rate per 100 000 hours flown over the period (τb = −0.8074, p = 0.0006). Sen's estimate of slope, the amount of downward rate change per year, was −0.250 occurrences per 100 000 hours flown per year (Figure 5).

With 23 fatal accidents in 2018 involving Canadian-registered aircraft, the fatal accident rate was 0.4 per 100 000 hours flown. That rate is comparable to the 2017 rate of 0.4, and is below the 2008 to 2017 average of 0.6 fatal accidents per 100 000 hours flown. Although there is a downward trend to the series of fatal accident rates since 2008 (Kendall's τb = −0.5311, p = 0.0298), the slope of the trend is quite small: Sen's estimate of slope is −0.033 fatal accidents per 100 000 hours flown per year.

In 2018, 36 fatalities resulted from accidents involving Canadian-registered aeroplanes and helicopters (excluding ultralights) , yielding a rate of 0.8 fatalities per 100 000 hours flown. This rate is slightly higher than the 2017 rate of 0.7, but below the average rate of 1.1 from 2008 to 2017. Like the accident rate and fatal accident rate, the fatality rate per 100 000 hours flown has trended downward since 2008 (Kendall's τb = −0.5742, p = 0.0152). The rate of change (Sen's estimate) is −0.105 fatalities per 100 000 hours flown per year.

Accident rate per 100 000 aircraft movements in Canada

An alternate method for calculating accident rate is to compare accident count to number of aircraft movements during a year (Table 3b). There were 167 accidents in Canada involving Canadian-registered and foreign aircraft (excluding ultralights) in 2018. This is fewer than in any of the preceding 10 years, when the average number of accidents was 226. The number of aircraft movements in Canada in 2018 was estimated to be 6 286 thousand,^{Footnote 3} yielding a rate of 2.7 accidents per 100 000 movements, which is below the 2017 rate of 3.3 accidents per 100 000 movements, and the average rate of 3.7 over the previous 10 years. In 2018, 26 fatalities resulted from accidents involving aeroplanes and helicopters in Canada, yielding a rate of 0.4 fatalities per 100 000 movements.

Dangerous goods released

Seven accidents in 2018 involved a release of dangerous goods. While this is lower than the total of 8 accidents with dangerous goods released in 2017, it is higher than the average of about 4 per year over the previous 10 years.

Accident events and phases

For each reported accident, the TSB records 1 or more safety-significant events that occurred, and the phase of flight of each of these events. For example, if an aeroplane suffers engine power loss during takeoff (safety-significant event 1), and then returns to land and has a runway excursion during landing (safety-significant event 2), each of the 2 events and their phase of flight will be recorded for statistical purposes. Tables 11 through 14 show, by phase of flight, how many accidents occurred for each event type from 2008 to 2018. Note that if a single accident involves more than 1 event within a phase of flight, that accident is only counted once in the phase total. Therefore, the total number of accidents for each event within a phase will not sum to the total number of accidents for a phase. For example, in the takeoff phase, if an accident involves both "loss of control" and "power loss" events, the accident is counted once in each event category within the phase, but only once in the overall phase total. As well, approximately 38% of aeroplane accidents and 29% of helicopter accidents involve events in more than 1 phase of flight, so the number of accidents shown in the tables, as well as in Figures 6 and 7, sum to more than the total number of accidents.

Figures 6 and 7 show the number of aeroplane and helicopter accidents by phase of flight and event category. Over the past 11 years (2008 to 2018), the distribution of aeroplane accidents (Figure 6) shows more accidents had events during the landing phase (56% of aeroplane accidents) and takeoff phase (24%) than in other phases of flight. The events in helicopter accidents (Figure 7) occurred more often during the landing (42%), manoeuvering^{Footnote 4} (23%), and en route (22%) phases of flight. Note that for both aeroplanes and helicopters, although the landing phase is associated with the largest number of accidents, the en route, takeoff, and maneuvering phases are associated with larger numbers of fatal accidents.

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Overview of incidents

Incident counts

There were 863 incidents reported in accordance with the TSB Regulations during 2018 (Table 9). This represents a drop from a peak of 939 reportable incidents in 2017, but remains above the average of 781 incidents per year between 2008 and 2017. However, the apparent increase in incidents over the past few years is partly explained by regulations that became effective 1 July 2014. Under those reporting requirements, aviation incidents to be reported now include those involving aircraft with a maximum certificated takeoff weight greater than 2250 kg (formerly 5700 kg) and aircraft being operated under an air operator certificate issued under the Canadian Aviation Regulations (CARs) Part VII.

Overall, reported incidents gradually decreased in number until about 2013, but over the past 5 years that number has increased back to approximately the same level as in 2008. The same general pattern (a few years of decreasing counts, followed by several years of increase) is evident since 2008 in the 2 most common incident categories: declared emergency, which accounted for 39% of reported incidents in 2018, and risk of collision/loss of separation, which made up 16% of reported incidents (Figure 8). Engine failure incidents made up 11% of incidents, while smoke/fire incidents were 12% of all incidents in 2018. Crew were reported unable to perform their duties 57 times, or in 7% of all reportable incidents in the year. The latter category is a decrease from last year's peak of 78 reported incidents.

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The majority of incidents in 2018 (611) occurred in Canada and involved Canadian-registered aircraft. However, 161 incidents involving Canadian-registered aircraft occurred outside Canada in 2018, a number that has increased sharply since 2015 to a peak of 181 in 2017, and remained high in 2018 compared to an average of 76 per year during the previous 10 years. Specifically, declared emergency and risk of collision/loss of separation were the 2 most common incident types involving Canadian-registered aircraft outside Canada. Both of these incident types, while not showing a monotonic trend over the 11-year period of this report, have increased in frequency over the past 5 years. The TSB is working to further analyze the rise in reported incidents, and in particular, the apparent increase in reportable incidents occurring outside Canada.

Commercial operations are the source of 95% of the incidents reported to the TSB, and ⅔ of these involve Canadian-registered airliners operating under CAR subpart 705. In 2018 there were 547 incidents reported involving Canadian-registered airliners, which is down 11% from a peak of 614 in 2017 but still above the average of 488 incidents per year reported from 2008 to 2017. Foreign air operators (CAR 701) were involved in 91 incidents, or about 11% of commercial incidents. This is down by more than half from the 190 incidents reported in 2008, but above last year's count of 80.

Data tables